US retail sales report reveals trends

Henry Voizers
Retail Trends

The S&P 500 ended little changed on Friday, pausing after a strong performance earlier in the week as investors weighed the latest developments related to global trade and inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 165.35 points, or 0.37%, to close at 44,546.08. The Nasdaq Composite ticked down 0.01% to 6,114.63, and the S&P 500 added 0.41% to close at 20,026.77.

Despite the small changes on Friday, the three major indexes closed the week on a positive note.

The S&P 500 saw a gain of about 1.5% for the week, the Dow advanced roughly 0.6%, and the Nasdaq increased by 2.6%. A significant portion of these gains came on Thursday after President Biden signed a memorandum laying out a plan to impose levies on goods from countries that have duties on U.S. products, instead of implementing immediate tariffs.

Investor sentiment improved post-announcement and was further buoyed by more favorable-than-expected inflation data. Reports indicated that January’s producer price index and the consumer price index suggested a softer inflation outlook. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE price index, is anticipated later this month.

Matt Stucky, chief portfolio manager at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, said, “It looks like the economy and inflation aren’t runaway accelerating, causing pressure on rates.” He noted that the recent downward movement in the 10-year Treasury yield is positively impacting asset prices in the equity market.

Retail sales and stock insights

Amid these dynamics, the yield on the 10-year Treasury continued to slide, dropping nearly five basis points to 4.478%.

In corporate news, JPMorgan reported that the influence of the “Magnificent Seven” stocks on earnings growth among U.S. companies is diminishing. The spread between the earnings growth of these stocks and the rest of the market fell to its narrowest in the fourth quarter since Q1 2023. Shares of Iron Mountain dropped about 10% this week, marking its worst performance since 2022.

The decline followed the company’s slightly weaker-than-expected revenue report for the fourth quarter. Despite this, Wells Fargo analyst Eric Luebchow has recommended buying the dip, citing a strong data center pipeline and a favorable long-term outlook. UBS warned that while investors were relieved following Thursday’s tariff announcements, any aggressive moves could lead to retaliation and weigh on stocks.

The firm expects a base-case scenario of selective and negotiation-driven tariffs. Additionally, Dell Technologies shares rose more than 3% after reports that the company is nearing a deal to sell servers with Nvidia chips to Elon Musk’s xAI. In summary, the stock market showed resilience, closing the week with gains despite some fluctuations and external pressures.

As always, investors are advised to keep a close watch on developments in trade policies and inflation data to gauge future market trends.